Kickoff! – Nov. 19

Minute Degree Tops are usually Structures; bottoms are usually Spikes. A Top in process will take days to form and can seem to take forever for a Swing Trader. The market churns for days and Long Options Traders (like me) caught holding burn Theta (not this time).

Please pay close attention to the oscillator at the bottom of my charts – it is an outstanding device for timing the entry and exit of trades. I have (literally) researched and tested the performance of hundreds of oscillators in this time dimension and this seemingly simple device is the best I have discovered. It is far better than anything based on Price Momentum (MACD for example).

Today was a Kickoff - the beginning of a decline that will continue and persist for at least a week. The opening plunge was so violent that few will be able to summon the courage to fight it. The game for the next few days is to sell the peaks.

Please see the chart below for the Primary Count on the S&P.

 Click on the chart for a sharper image.

To my regular readers (and friends) I apologize for my tardiness of late. I am sometimes taken away from the markets by other obligations.

The market has completed a Minuette Wave (v) as expected. My present expectations are for a persistent decline lasting many days.

Pat McNeill
http://patmcneill.blogspot.com/

Just a Moment Longer - Nov. 17

I have been expecting the markets to complete Minuette Wave (v) soon and it looks like just a little more time is needed.

Please see the chart below for the Primary Count on the S&P.

 Click on the chart for a sharper image.

Pat McNeill
http://patmcneill.blogspot.com/

Who Invited the Bulls? – Nov. 16

The Impulse up from Oct. 21 is not quite over and the Bulls have given the market another push. The count up from Oct. 21 is putting together “The Right Look” and Minuette Wave (v) appears to need one more oscillation to complete (if it doesn’t extend).

Compliments to Paolo of Milan, Italy, who anticipated the correct count in the comments section last Friday.

Please see the chart below for the Primary Count on the S&P.

Click on the chart for a sharper image.

Last week I thought market was within the opening waves of a Minute Degree decline but I was early. I expect the markets will complete Minuette Wave (v) in the next day.

Pat McNeill
http://patmcneill.blogspot.com/

Bears are Back – Nov. 13

One look at the Financial Sector would make a full-grown Bull cry. It never came near its Oct. 21 highs and it has been flashing a warning for two days now.

Minute Degree Tops are Structures; this Structure is probably complete. We have had a breakdown out of a channel to yesterday’s lower low followed by today’s valiant advance that stumbled on every possible trend line that could be drawn and failed to take out the highs. The ratio of NY Advancing to Declining Issues couldn’t get much past 2.0 which is very low for an advance of any kind and the oscillators began rolling over around mid-day. It looks like the Structure of a top is in and Nov. 12 was a Truncated top on the S&P.

Please see the chart below for the Primary Count on the S&P.

 Click on the chart for a sharper image.

As expected and discussed last night, this morning brought a test of the highs but the market failed to develop any significant breadth and stalled around mid-day. The market is now probably within the opening waves of a Minute Degree decline.

Pat McNeill
http://patmcneill.blogspot.com/

Change the Channel – Nov. 12

A Minor Degree Wave never turns on a dime. A sequence of events takes place which may include a break of the trend channel, a last push on a lower Gann Line to a higher high, and a lack of confirmation among some markets and sectors. These events are usually followed by a break to a materially lower low with a final advance that fails to make a new high.

In Elliott Wave Theory these waves are each numbered and they each have what is called Wave Personality. Classical Technical Analysis also has a suite of structures that describe the same phenomenon. Today was a break of the trend channel, but the Bulls should be back with another push. It’s time again to watch for non-confirmations across leading sectors and in my kit these include the Financial, Energy, and the Transport sectors.

Please see the chart below for the Primary Count on the S&P.

Click on the chart for a sharper image.

As discussed last night, I was considering that the market might break down out of the channel to a lower Gann Line. I think this has happened and is over and now I expect the market to advance to test and possibly just slightly exceed the highs to complete the Minor Degree Wave up from Nov. 2.

Pat McNeill
http://patmcneill.blogspot.com/